Delayed Effects Complicate Causal Assumptions
Context
Investigation of temporal relationships between observed causes and effects in development team performance patterns.
Observation
Effect delays ranged from 2 to 14 weeks after presumed causal events, with significant variation in delay patterns. Direct causal links could be verified in only 31% of assumed cause-effect relationships.
Insight
The temporal distance between causes and effects appears to create systematic errors in causal attribution. Immediate effects might not reflect true causal relationships, while delayed effects often escape causal attribution.
Why This Matters
Temporal complexity in cause-effect relationships may influence how we interpret performance changes. The assumption of immediate or near-term effects might lead to incorrect causal attributions.
Limitation
Study relied on retrospective analysis of documented events. Real-time causal attribution patterns may show different characteristics not captured in historical analysis.